and other factors. >> what do you think, is the energy piece of this a game-changer? >> i think it's partly a game-changer. although the u.s. will become more energy independent in the natural gas fracking age, it doesn't become completely independent of the rest of the world. the global economy is still highly integrated. and quite aside from the fiscal cliff, there's another cliff, the euro cliff, that we haven't talked about. the last year of american economic performance has been more impacted by events in europe than by any of the things that roger's mentioned. and i don't think that's about to change. remember, the europeans are back from their vacations now. you get a month off in europe, and that includes a month off crisis. another crisis starts again, and we go back to stoffering that, oh, dear -- discovering that, oh, dear, the greeks and portuguese haven't met their targets. it's going to have a dampening effect. >> you also think, niall, that there's another issue, the inherent lack of competitiveness of the u.s. and western economies. in your last back, "civilization," this was one of the themes you talked about.